Are We Ready for the Next Rush?

By Bob Gardner

California has been a magnet for people all over the country and world. Although restricted by the ocean, mountains, earthquake zones and water limitations, the state welcomed them and made room.

But are we ready for the coming period of population growth?

Consider the most recent population statistics and projections from the California Department of Finance. The state had a population of 29.9 million in 1990, increasing to 34.7 million in 2000. Projections are for the population to reach 40 million in 2010 - the additional 5 million people is equivalent to half of Los Angeles County's population today. By 2020, California's population will reach 46 million - almost one-third more than in 2000.

To put these population magnitudes in perspective, 5 million people is equivalent to today's Sacramento County repeated almost four times over. Or, today's San Diego County equivalent repeated two to three times over.

To accommodate the next 5 million people expected by 2010, we will need to create substantially more living space -- another 1.5 million to 2 million households. Consider again the urban land requirements to meet the additional 6 million people projected in the state between 2010 and 2020.

The steps needed to accommodate the population increase will take time - clearing the rights-of-way for roads and freeways; expanding public transit including light rail and subways; developing serviced land for houses, schools, colleges, offices and other buildings; and bringing in utilities such as electricity, gas and water. Getting Californians to appreciate the implications of these future magnitudes will take time as well.
To compound the issue, California is running out of coastal land on which to build. Orange County, which epitomized contemporary suburban development, is reportedly nearing build-out. Inland areas such as San Bernardino and Riverside counties are attempting to fill the residential void. In the Central Valley, growth becomes an explosive debate given the need to retain agricultural land for growing food, and agriculture's importance in California's economy.

What's being done about this?

As far as we can tell, not enough. There does not seem to be enough urgency at the state, county and municipal level to start planning for accommodating the population increase.

We believe it is urgent for Californians to determine how much urban land, the locations and other infrastructure that will be needed to accommodate the increase. Then, we must start the process of creating and refining development concepts, working through the public approvals process, rethinking the concept, if necessary, and actual construction.

Not paying attention to this issue will mean more congested highways, crowded schools, and a shortage of housing that will drive people from the state and stunt its growth.

Wise planning will result in a brighter future.

Gardner is managing director in the Los Angeles office of Robert Charles Lesser & Co., LLC, a consulting firm specializing in real estate development issues.